Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.090293 0.104943 0.121740 0.142540 0.167765 0.197567 0.235738
2025-10-05 0.069552 0.087151 0.109274 0.139522 0.180423 0.234719 0.313816
2025-10-12 0.056932 0.076125 0.102280 0.141395 0.199964 0.287038 0.431575
2025-10-19 0.046956 0.066480 0.095074 0.141514 0.218107 0.345380 0.586939
2025-10-26 0.039477 0.058864 0.089199 0.142452 0.238934 0.418254 0.810162
2025-11-02 0.032609 0.050819 0.080990 0.137725 0.249682 0.480885 1.061465
2025-11-09 0.026753 0.043292 0.072074 0.129572 0.252120 0.531263 1.333593
2025-11-16 0.023146 0.038903 0.067736 0.129072 0.270988 0.631068 1.840401
2025-11-23 0.020204 0.035155 0.063808 0.128479 0.290447 0.748087 2.557937
2025-11-30 0.018026 0.032435 0.061323 0.130479 0.318252 0.912582 3.732533
2025-12-07 0.016132 0.029926 0.058754 0.131677 0.345644 1.103762 5.462260
2025-12-14 0.014114 0.026825 0.054289 0.126955 0.354385 1.242299 7.322681
2025-12-21 0.011656 0.022507 0.046469 0.111793 0.325354 1.217080 8.150566
2025-12-28 0.010582 0.020982 0.044815 0.113191 0.354394 1.490639 12.736176
2026-01-04 0.009813 0.020002 0.044273 0.117806 0.399688 1.922721 22.228156
2026-01-11 0.009043 0.018894 0.043191 0.120577 0.441327 2.423474 38.829264
2026-01-18 0.008374 0.017913 0.042246 0.123620 0.488327 3.081185 72.047189
2026-01-25 0.007596 0.016549 0.039989 0.121460 0.510376 3.620449 120.397629
2026-02-01 0.006806 0.015039 0.037038 0.115866 0.511723 4.001927 183.438056
2026-02-08 0.006310 0.014199 0.035851 0.116607 0.550671 4.933607 371.858251
2026-02-15 0.005860 0.013416 0.034676 0.117055 0.590084 6.069553 816.327773
2026-02-22 0.005513 0.012852 0.034056 0.119665 0.648240 7.816819 2313.639005
2026-03-01 0.005180 0.012276 0.033288 0.121432 0.704625 9.962506 7810.026265